The Middle East escalation, projections indicate a potential increase in petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices by approximately Rs2.50 and Rs8.50 per litre, respectively, on Monday (April 15) and for the subsequent fortnight. This price surge is anticipated despite a decline in the import premium and a marginally improved exchange rate.
The international market witnessed a rise in petrol and HSD prices by about $4 and $4.50 per barrel, respectively, over the last fortnight. Consequently, petrol prices are expected to escalate by Rs2.50 to Rs2.80 per litre, while HSD prices may surge by Rs8 to Rs8.50 per litre.
The import premium on petrol has decreased by nearly 21% to $10.7 per barrel, whereas the rupee has strengthened by about 40 paisa against the dollar to Rs278.20. Despite this, the net effect is estimated to result in a petrol price increase of approximately Rs2.80 per litre from the current rate of Rs289.41.
Conversely, HSD prices witnessed an uptick in the international market, with the import premium remaining stable at $6.50 per barrel. Consequently, HSD rates are anticipated to rise by Rs8 to Rs8.50 per litre, contingent upon the final exchange rate adjustments in pricing, from the current rate of Rs282.24 per litre at the depot stage.
Officials indicate that petrol prices surged by about $4 per barrel to $98.5, while HSD prices rose by $4.50 per barrel to $102.9.
Approximately a fortnight ago, the government hiked petrol prices by Rs9.66 per litre and reduced HSD prices by Rs3.32 per litre for the fortnight ending April 15. Currently, the government levies about Rs82 per litre tax on both petrol and HSD, achieving the maximum permissible petroleum levy limit of Rs60 per litre under the law.
Aligned with commitments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government aims to collect Rs869 billion as petroleum levy on petroleum products during the current fiscal year, having already amassed about Rs475 billion in the first half (July-December) of the fiscal. Despite a revised target of Rs920 billion by end-June, the government is anticipated to achieve around Rs970 billion by year-end.
